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Safe Global Temperatures Could be Breached in This Lifetime
The journal Nature just published two research reports that suggest global temperatures could rise to unsafe levels (two degrees Celsius in some parts of the world) in this lifetime if greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed, and perhaps sooner than previously thought.
The scientific community and international climate policy has focused in recent years on limiting the rise in temperatures as a way of getting a handle on runaway climate change. The conclusion at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun in 2010 was that global average temperatures must not rise more than 2?°C relative to pre-industrial levels.
The scientific consensus is that if global temperatures were to rise more than 2?°C, dangerous and unstoppable climate changes would be the result, including increases in droughts, rising sea levels, floods, and other extreme weather events.
Unfortunately for humanity, the two papers, published by different groups of scientists, agree that it looks like we aren’t likely going to be able to slow down the rise in temperature. Following are two salient quotes from the papers:
“On regional scales, however, the 2 °C threshold will probably be exceeded over large parts of Eurasia, North Africa and Canada by 2040 if emissions continue to increase — well within the lifetime of many people living now.”
"Large parts of Eurasia, North Africa and Canada could potentially experience individual five-year average temperatures that exceed the 2 degree Celsius threshold by 2030 -- a timescale that is not so distant."
Given these findings, the question no longer seems to be if but when we will see significant climate change.
These are important findings. Read them for yourself:
- Emission pathways consistent with a 2?°C global temperature limit by academics at the English universities of Reading and Oxford, the UK's Met Office Hadley Center and the Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand
- Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial levels by scientists at Zurich's Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the UK's Met Office Hadley Center
