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It comes as no surprise that a recent special report entitled Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation confirms what most have already said: Climate change will have a significant impact on the world’s economy.
The aim of the report was to examine the interrelationship between extreme weather events and climate change, and a link they did find. From the report:
- Models project substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century.
- It is likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe.
- Average tropical cyclone maximum wind speed is likely to increase, although increases may not occur in all ocean basins.
- There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or increased evapotranspiration.
- It is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels in the future.
- There is high confidence that changes in heat waves, glacial retreat and/or permafrost degradation will affect high mountain phenomena such as slope instabilities, movements of mass, and glacial lake outburst floods.
The exposure of people and economic assets to these changes in weather events will have a major impact on economic losses from disasters. The report’s conclusions on how these extreme weather event s will affect the economic system are as follows:
- Extreme events will have greater impacts on sectors with closer links to climate, such as water, agriculture and food security, forestry, health, and tourism.
- In many regions, the main drivers for future increases in economic losses due to some climate extremes will be socioeconomic in nature.
- Increases in exposure will result in higher direct economic losses from tropical cyclones.
- Losses will also depend on future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity.
- Disasters associated with climate extremes influence population mobility and relocation, affecting host and origin communities.
In case we become complacent in the belief that these impacts won’t be felt for some time, we must to remember that in some areas, climate change is already making economic waves. Consider, for instance, that the 2011 drought, wildfires and tornadoes in the US already have cost more than $52 billion.
In a recent Ceres press release, Dan Probst, chairman of energy and sustainable services at Jones Lang LaSalle commented: "The real estate industry has long been focused on reducing the impact of buildings on the environment through energy use and resulting carbon emissions. Now we're seeing the need to focus on the environment's impact on buildings due to the physical ripples of climate change. More than ever before, weather events and other climate-related factors are beginning to impact real estate location and design decisions."
