Blog

American Council for Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE), a Washington, DC non-profit, recently analyzed data from the Energy Information Administration to prepare a report that has some outstanding news for the green building sector. The report, entitled The Long-Term Energy Efficiency Potential: What the Evidence Suggests, discusses three scenarios that would result in reductions in American energy consumption of 60% in 2050 while creating 2 million net new jobs and saving consumers approximately $400 billion in household utility bills annually ($2600 per household every year).

Their conclusion after analyzing the data is simple: by making more productive investments in energy efficiency, fewer power plant investments would be required, which in turn would lower overall energy costs throughout the economy, all while creating new jobs. Their essential assumption is that investments in new energy are diverting needed funds from energy efficiency improvements which would have vastly larger benefits to the country as a whole.

Steven Nadel, ACEEE Executive Direction, made these comments: “After paying for the program costs and making the necessary investments as we pay for them over time, the economy will benefit from a net energy bill savings that ranges from 12 to 16 trillion dollars cumulatively from 2012 through 2050. In other words, the energy efficiency scenarios outlined in our report will spur an annual net energy bill savings that might range up to about $2600 per household annually in constant 2009 dollars.”

The following are their assumptions for where the greatest energy efficiencies could be achieved:

• Electric Power.  Our current system of generating and delivering electricity to U.S. homes and businesses is an anemic 31 percent energy efficient. That is, for every three units of coal or other fuel we use to generate the power, we manage to deliver less than one unit of electricity to our homes and businesses. What the U.S. wastes in the generation of electricity is more than Japan needs to power its entire economy. What is even more astonishing is that our current level of (in)efficiency is essentially unchanged in the half century since 1960, when President Dwight D. Eisenhower spent his last year in the White House.
• Transportation.   The fuel economy of conventional petroleum-fueled vehicles continues to grow while hybrid, electric, and fuel cell vehicles gain large shares, totaling nearly three-quarters of all new light-duty vehicles in 2050 in the report’s middle scenario. Aviation, rail, and shipping energy use declines substantially in this scenario through a combination of technological and operational improvements. In the most aggressive scenario, there is a shift toward more compact development patterns, and greater investment in alternative modes of travel and other measures that reduce both passenger and freight vehicle miles traveled. This scenario also phases out conventional light-duty gasoline vehicles entirely, increases hybrid and fuel cell penetration for heavy-duty vehicles, and reduces aviation energy use by 70 percent.  
• Buildings.   In residential and commercial buildings the evidence suggests potential reductions of space heating and cooling needs as the result of building shell improvements of up to 60 percent in existing buildings, and 70-90 percent in new buildings. The ACEEE scenarios also incorporate advanced heating and cooling systems (e.g., gas and ground-source air conditioners and heat pumps, and condensing furnaces and boilers), decreased energy distribution losses, advanced solid-state lighting, and significantly more efficient appliances.
• Industry.  In the industrial sector, energy efficiency opportunities reduce 2050 energy use by up to half, coming less from equipment efficiency and more from optimization of complex systems. The ACEEE analysis focuses on process optimization in the middle scenario, but also anticipates even greater optimization of entire supply chains in the most aggressive scenario, allowing for more efficient use of feedstocks and elimination of wasted production.